So what do Americans make of the best-picture nominees? The Wall Street Journal commissioned data-intelligence company Morning Consult to poll more than 4,400 adults nationwide this month to better understand which movies people actually watched. The Journal tracked additional results from Google searches and mentions on

Twitter

and Reddit. The paper measured films using these metrics and created separate popularity scores by combining all the data.

The results include some surprises, like a groundswell of support for “West Side Story” and “King Richard,” not always the first titles when Oscar prognosticators talk best-picture odds. “CODA” sparked the most chatter on Twitter, while Reddit was “Dune” territory. And the runaway winner by nearly every measure, “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” wasn’t even nominated. The Journal included the blockbuster as a benchmark for movie popularity.

10 highlights from the WSJ Oscar Rankings:

The highest quality, low-enjoyment nominee

People appear to have complex feelings about Oscar movies, calling a film high-quality and not fun in the same breath—the movie-watching equivalent of “it’s not you, it’s me.” Here, “The Power of the Dog” reported the biggest gap between perceived quality and actual enjoyment. The cowboy drama set in 1925 Montana directed by acclaimed filmmaker Jane Campion received 12 Oscar nominations, more than any other film. In the poll, the

Netflix

movie ranked fifth in quality but ninth in enjoyment.

The movie that Oscars watchers think should win 

Americans who plan to watch the Oscars are most likely to say that either “West Side Story” or “King Richard” should win best picture. “West Side Story,” directed by 19-time Oscar nominee and three-time Oscar winner Steven Spielberg, mixes familiar storytelling and modern choreography in a retelling of an American classic. “King Richard,” the story of

Richard Williams

—father of tennis greats Venus and Serena Williams—stars Will Smith, Hollywood royalty and the anticipated winner for best actor. 

The movie that Oscar watchers think will win

Adults overall are most likely to say “West Side Story” will win best picture, with “King Richard” the second-most likely pick, according to the poll.

The most popular best-picture nominee overall

The one title everyone could agree on: “Dune.” The science-fiction epic, a wind-swept story of spice currency and sand worms, nabbed the top slot for most popular film when polling data, social-media mentions and Google searches were combined for an overall WSJ popularity score. By other measures, the movie also stands apart, beating out every best-picture nominee in grosses last year. The movie, which made more than $400 million, was the 13th-biggest film at the domestic box office in 2021 and the 11th-biggest globally, according to Box Office Mojo. This, even though it premiered simultaneously on the streaming platform HBO Max—to the chagrin of “Dune” director Denis Villeneuve. 

The other nominees on the WSJ rankings, in descending order of popularity: “Don’t Look Up,” “West Side Story, “King Richard,” “The Power of the Dog,” “CODA,” “Nightmare Alley,” “Belfast,” “Licorice Pizza” and “Drive My Car.” 

The best-picture nominees ranked from most popular to least

The disqualified front-runner in nearly every category

“Spider-Man: No Way Home,” included in the research to serve as a benchmark for popularity, from Oscar worthiness to enjoyment. But the results don’t apply because the movie wasn’t nominated for best picture. It nabbed just one Oscar nomination, for visual effects, a category where “Dune” is favored to win. “Spider-Man” was the biggest hit of 2021, with a pandemic-era global box office haul of nearly $1.9 billion. 

The most deserving nominee according to “Spider-Man” viewers

“Spider-Man” viewers who saw at least one best-picture nominee—a subset of people who might be more likely to go to the movies—called “Spider-Man” the most deserving of a best-picture nomination, followed by “Dune” and “West Side Story” in a tie, and “King Richard” in fourth. 

The biggest movie on Twitter

Oscar watchers put “CODA” and “The Power of the Dog” in a tight race for best picture. But when it comes to mentions on Twitter between March 16 and March 22, “CODA” is the clear winner. The movie, about a hearing young woman among deaf family members in a New England fishing community, recently won the top prize in film at the Producers Guild Awards. It racked up roughly twice the Twitter mentions as “The Power of the Dog,” according to the Journal’s analysis of social-media data. 

The most-watched movie according to polling data

Want viewer data? Don’t look up “Don’t Look Up” because the numbers aren’t there. Popularity of the film from Netflix, which like other streaming platforms keeps detailed audience statistics private, has been tough to quantify. But in the poll, more people reported watching “Don’t Look Up” than any other best-picture nominee. What’s more, among best-picture nominees “Don’t Look Up” pleased the largest proportion of its viewers, with 86 percent saying they enjoyed it, according to the poll. The global-warming allegory—a darkly comic take on the end of the world—featured one of last year’s starriest casts with Meryl Streep, Jennifer Lawrence and Leonardo DiCaprio. 

The busiest nominee on social media

“Dune” was the most talked about on Reddit and the most searched on Google among the nominees, according to Journal research. The film’s cast includes Zendaya, the “Spider-Man” love interest and a star of the edgy HBO cult hit show “Euphoria.” Alongside her in the cast are Timothée Chalamet and Oscar Isaac, heartthrobs to Gen Zs and their moms, respectively. Gen Z has thrown its weight behind “Dune,” breaking with older adults by predicting that the space opera will win best picture.

The least popular films, according to polling, search and social-media data

“Belfast” had Oscar watchers predicting a best-picture win earlier in awards season. Those prognosticators now see its victory as a longer shot, a status reflected in the rankings. Director Kenneth Branagh’s mostly black-and-white film based on his childhood in violence-torn Northern Ireland ranked on the bottom half of the scale. Keeping it company on the lower end of the popularity spectrum: “Nightmare Alley,” a noirish story of a 1940s con man; “Licorice Pizza,” a coming-of-age love story set in California’s San Fernando Valley in the 1970s; and “Drive My Car,” a subtitled Japanese drama about a grieving widower that was two hours and 59 minutes long. 

To read more about our methodology, click here.