The Way Of Water’ To Top $850 Million Box Office Despite Winter Storms

Frigid temperatures and winter storms will wreak havoc on theatrical attendance this Christmas weekend in North America, but it won’t stop Avatar: The Way of Water from topping $850+ million at the box office.

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Source: Disney, IMAX

After a huge opening weekend and now sitting atop $661 million in global receipts after its first week of release, James Cameron’s eagerly anticipated sequel to the chart-topping 2009 sci-fi blockbuster Avatar is expected to see lower-than hoped for domestic receipts due to extreme conditions across much of the USA through the holiday weekend. People won’t venture out as much as blizzards and icy conditions make travel hazardous, and power outages force many to huddle at home without heat.

But global conditions don’t mirror those stateside, and Avatar 2 is still racking up massive daily tallies as it heads into its second weekend. International sales should be strong enough to boost total worldwide numbers toward $200+ million, although continued uncontrolled spread of Covid across China threatens to suppress turnout there again and could pull final weekend figures down to the $190+/- million territory. That’s still good enough for an $850 million cume by end of weekend business, and anything north of $190-200 million would lift the film closer toward $900 million.

That’s lower than the $1 billion tally I thought was possible — but not guaranteed — for the Christmas weekend, but considering the combination of shocking Covid numbers out of China and extreme winter storm blanketing most of the domestic region, being off only about $100-150 million is a more than respectable outcome.

Indeed, if Avatar: the Way of Water does wind up in the $850 million range, it will still almost certainly hit $1 billion before the third weekend. That puts it on track for a 16-day or less path to the magic $1 billion mark, good enough for 6th place on the all-time chart of fastest films to reach that box office milestone. All of the films in the top-5, and the film it would replace for the #6 spot, topped $1.5 billion, and most of them topped $1.9 billion. Which is, of course, a great sign for Avatar 2’s odds of landing somewhere similar by the end of its run.

With a relatively open field ahead at cinemas and several weeks of kids and parents on vacation through the holidays and New Year, Avatar: the Way of Water looks well-positioned to easily sprint to $1.5 billion and make a run at $2 billion. I don’t think at this point it will challenge for much higher than that, though.

Meanwhile, Disney’s other big holiday season Marvel Studios release Black Panther: Wakanda Forever hopes to top $800 million this weekend. Whether the rest of December and early New Year can provide the boost needed for the MCU sequel to make a play for $900 billion remains to be seen. You can read my review of the film here.

At this point, however, I think the combination of factors — most importantly China’s Covid crisis, the domestic winter storm, and more somber and meditative nature of the super-sequel’s story — are slowing its theatrical prospects and make it unfortunately unlikely at this point that the film can rally to a $900 or higher outcome.

Only two films — Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World: Dominion — have topped $1 billion in 2022, and shockingly neither or them are Marvel releases. So far, Marvel Studios has to settle for a third place position on the year’s box office chart with Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness.

But Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Thor: Love and Thunder are in 5th and 7th place for the year, respectively, while Avatar: The Way of Water currently sits in the #8 position — but not for long, as this weekend will see it leapfrog to the #5 spot, displacing the Black Panther sequel. All told, then, Disney’s family of studios can claim four of the top 10 films at 2022 box office.

Avatar: The Way of Water should wind up sitting atop those charts by the end of what will be a long and leggy run. And while a final worldwide result of $1.5-2 billion is significantly less than the first film’s gargantuan all-time $2.9 billion, there’s no scenario in which The Way of Water isn’t still a big blockbuster hit.

Yes, Cameron said it needed to be among the all-time chart toppers to break even, but that was a bit of hyperbole on his part, since much of the up-front investment for this film was toward technology and sets and other expenses that in the long run reduced costs for the third film — which is already completed filming and undergoing post-production work ahead of its release next year at Christmas.

The real issue was always going to be whether Avatar 2 demonstrated the franchise is still in high demand and capable of delivering consistent billion-plus box office and matching merchandising power, both of which are already destined to be true. If The Way of Water winds up around $1.5 billion and Avatar 3 performs the same, they will combine for at least $3 billion in box office plus hundreds of millions if not billions more dollars in global merchandising sales.

That’s more than enough to ensure the health of the series and justify additional sequels, not to mention covering all of the costs of production and earning plenty of black ink.

This was always a longterm investment strategy to grow the IP and use simultaneous multi-film productions as a way to smartly maximize the investment and resources (including time), so that the totality of the costs and likewise totality of box office and merchandising were the final determining factors. And in that regard, all signs clearly point to a win for Avatar, Cameron, and Disney-Fox.

Stay tuned for more box office updates through the holiday season and beyond, and check back here soon for plenty of coverage of Avatar: The Way of Water. Be sure to read my review of the film here. Stay safe and warm during the storms, dear readers, and don’t forget to mask up when attending holiday festivities or venturing to theaters.

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I work as a screenwriter for film & TV. In a former life I was a media specialist & campaign ad writer. Follow me on Twitter and add me on Google .