These Best Picture Nominees—Including ‘The Zone Of Interest’ And ‘American Fiction’—Are Hoping An Oscar Bump Can Help Their Box Office Numbers

Topline

The Best Picture lineup at the upcoming Academy Awards will pit two summer box-office smashes, “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” against a slew of films with more modest financial performances, some of which have only had limited theatrical runs and may be hoping for more theatergoers to buy tickets.

“American Fiction” is up for Best Picture and Best Actor for Jeffrey Wright. (Photo by Jason … [+] Mendez/Getty Images)

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Key Facts

Of the 10 films nominated for Best Picture this year, two are record-breaking box office hits—“Barbie” and “Oppenheimer”—while “Killers of the Flower Moon” is the only other nominee to top $100 million in worldwide gross.

The fourth-highest grossing nominee, “Poor Things,” has made $33.9 million worldwide, hovering just under its reported $35 million budget, but it is still expanding its reach: It nearly tripled its number of domestic theaters last weekend to 1,400, according to Box Office Mojo.

“American Fiction” and “The Zone of Interest” are the only Best Picture nominees to gross under $10 million worldwide, but both have only been in limited release, and expanded to to 850 and 82 domestic theaters last weekend, respectively, according to Box Office Mojo.

“The Holdovers,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” and “Past Lives” all grossed around the $25 million mark—but all three have also largely wound down their planned theatrical runs, according to Box Office Mojo.

“Maestro” had a limited theatrical run, and its production company Netflix reportedly does not release box office figures—but IndieWire estimated it grossed $300,000 after five days in eight theaters.

Best Picture Nominees Ranked By Global Box Office

“Barbie”: $1.45 billion ($636 million domestic)
“Oppenheimer”: $952 million ($326 million domestic)
“Killers of the Flower Moon”: $156 million ($67 million domestic)
“Poor Things”: $33.9 million ($20.4 million domestic)
“The Holdovers”: $26.2 million ($18.7 million domestic)
“Anatomy of a Fall”: $23.1 million ($3.9 million domestic)
“Past Lives”: $22.7 million ($10.9 million domestic)
“American Fiction”: $7.9 million ($7.9 million domestic)
“The Zone of Interest”: $1.6 million ($1.6 million domestic)
“Maestro”: Estimated gross of $300,000 after just a five-day limited opening in eight theaters.

Contra

Though films have traditionally earned boosts at the box office after receiving Oscar nominations, CNBC reported last year that the bump post-Oscar nods has shrunk. Instead, Brandon Katz, an industry strategist at Parrot Analytics told CNBC the box office bump has largely been replaced with a boosted performance on streaming platforms. Last year, eight of the 10 Best Picture nominees were reportedly already on streaming after the nominations announcement since they had already run their course in theaters. Reigning Best Picture winner “Everything Everywhere All at Once” had the biggest box office boost post-nominations last year, Variety reported, collecting $1 million in the post-nomination weekend. But it was a far cry from the box office numbers for the films nominated at the 2020 Oscars, held just before the pandemic: In the post-nomination weekend, “1917” made $22 million at the domestic box office, and “Little Women” made $6.3 million.

Tangent

“Killers of the Flower Moon” is the third highest-grossing Best Picture nominee this year, with $156 million in worldwide gross—but whether the movie has been a financial success or a box office flop has been the subject of debate. The film carried a hefty budget of $200 million, but Variety reported films produced by streaming services—in this case, Apple—measure success differently than traditional studios. Some experts told Variety the film could be considered a success because Apple may get a subscription bump for its streaming service, and because it is “one of the deepest-pocketed companies in the world.” “Apple making a $200 million movie is like you buying a cup of coffee and spilling it,” Stephen Galloway, dean of Chapman University’s film school, told Variety. But other experts said its success is hard to measure because the amount of Apple TV+ subscribers gained is unknown, and the film would be considered a flop if released by a traditional studio. “I don’t see how its current global box office puts it in a position to turn a profit,” Eric Handler, senior media and entertainment analyst at Roth Capital Partners, said.

News Peg

The Academy unveiled the nominations for the 96th Academy Awards Tuesday morning. “Oppenheimer” led the pack with 13 nominations—just one shy of tying the record for the most-nominated film ever. “Poor Things” and “Killers of the Flower Moon” followed with 11 and 10 nominations apiece. Among the most surprising snubs were Greta Gerwig for directing “Barbie” and Margot Robbie for her performance as the titular doll. Though some pundits predicted an all-male director lineup, Justine Triet made the cut for her French courtroom drama, “Anatomy of a Fall.”