What of Netflix’s Red Notice? While rival distributors can’t see ticket sales for the film in Comscore, there are other ways and means of figuring out what this Dwayne Johnson-Gal Gadot-Ryan Reynolds $200M action film grossed at 750 locations. We’re hearing the movie had a great Saturday night (for a Netflix movie) and is approaching $1.25M in monitored theaters. Other sources have floated a $1.5M three-day to me, which is possible, but the lower number is more reasonable. While Netflix doesn’t report their box office numbers, here’s one nice thing exhibition can say about them: They provide excellent rental terms. In doing that, Netflix leaves it to exhibition to sing for their supper, and promote the movie at their venues to drive business. Some dine-in chains are elated with the bucks they can pump out of a Netflix movie. Still, as we said, the bigger circuits would have starved for this event film release in the next few weeks. I hear the reason why the pic is on a one week theatrical window (versus the standard three week window for Netflix awards bait titles) is because it was finished late, and pick-up shots were needed.

NEON is reporting $2.1M at 996 theaters for its Kristen Stewart Princess Diana pic Spencer which posted $783K Friday, $780K Saturday and is expected to ring in $585K today. Despite the solid hold here by Searchlight’s The French Dispatch being even in its third weekend with its previous session thanks to an additional 417 theaters (with a current count of 1,205), I hear business is largely being driven for the Wes Anderson movie by 150 core runs. Essentially, despite the flood of arthouse product, the sector is still waiting to fully awaken during the pandemic. Perhaps, down the road, when we finally don’t have to wear masks in public.

1.) Eternals (Dis) 4,090 theaters, Fri $30.7M, Sat $24.1M/Sun $16.2M/3-day $71M/Wk 1

2.) Dune (WB) 3,546 (-579) theaters, Fri $2.25M/Sat $3.3M/Sun $2M/ 3-day $7.6M (-51%)/Total $83.9M/Wk 3

3.) No Time to Die (UAR) 3,007 (-500) theaters, Fri $1.8M/Sat $2.6M/Sun $1.7M/ 3-day $6.1M (-20%), Total: $143.1M/Wk 5

4.) Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony) 2,640 (-638) theaters, Fri $1.18M/Sat $2M/Sun $1.27M/3-day $4.4M (-23%)/Total $197M/Wk 6

5.) Ron’s Gone Wrong (Dis/20th) 2,650 (-910) theaters, Fri $830K, Sat $1.66M/Sun $1.1M/ 3-day $3.6M (-3%)/Total $17.6M/Wk 3

6.) The French Dispatch (Sea) 1,205 (+417) theaters Fri $820K/Sat $1M/Sun $732K/ 3-day $2.6M (even)/Total $8.4M/Wk 3

7.) Halloween Kills (Uni) 3,098 (-518) theaters Fri $700K/Sat $1M/Sun $620K/ 3-day $2.35M (-73%)/Total $89.7M/wk 4

8.) Spencer (NEON) 996 theaters, Fri $783K, Sat $780K/Sun $585K/3-day $2.1M/Wk 1

9.) Antlers (Sea) 2,800 theaters, Fri $608K,Sat $725K/Sun $567K 3-day $2M (-53%), Total $7.6M/Wk 2

10.) Last Night in Soho (Foc) 3,016 theaters, Fri $580K,Sat $740K/Sun $480K/ 3-day $1.8M (-57%), Total $7.6M/Wk 2

11.) My Hero Academia (Fun) 1,445 theaters (-136) Fri $428K/Sat $709K/Sun$450K/3-day $1.6M (-75%)/Total $9.7M/Wk 2

Notables:

Sooryavanshi (Reliance) 491 locations, Fri $362K/Sat $525K/Sun $452K/3-day $1.33M/Wk 1

Red Notice (Netflix) 750 theaters, 3-day $1.25M-$1.5M/Wk 1

Annaatthe (Qube) 398 theaters, Fri $683K, Sat $147K/Sun $110k/3-day $940K/Wk 1 [industry estimates were way off on this one]

Saturday AM Update: Disney/Marvel’s Eternals, as of this minute, is still looking to come in at $70M+ for the weekend. But the feature could buckle and land in the high $60M range if it doesn’t have a solid Saturday night. For a glossy superstar ensemble with Angelina Jolie, Richard Madden, Kit Harington, Salma Hayek, and Gemma Chan about superhero gods, it’s not the type of opening we’d come to expect from the MCU.

Disney has confidence that the pic will deliver between $70M-$75M. Friday is right where we saw it yesterday with $30.7M. True, among Disney-released Marvel titles, Ant-Man ranks as the lowest, with a $57.2M opening, and it’s possible that Eternals is $5M shy of Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings‘ $75M 3-day. However, the latter was boosted by a 4-day holiday weekend.

Now, before some sector of the Wall Street media writes about cinema’s obituary, or tries to blame Covid-19, let’s provide a wake-up call here: It’s not a shocker to see the numbers so low on Eternals, and it boils down to the film itself, not the current state of moviegoing. And you can’t blame Disney in any way shape or form for not selling Eternals, as its marketing machine was in great shape. Oscar-winner Chloe Zhao delivered a very byzantine, confusing movie with ten protagonists that’s part of the deeper-universe Marvel IP (which is always a box office gamble. But Marvel has typically bucked such risks in the past) that, in addition to being one of the longer origin stories, is the worst-reviewed MCU movie of all-time at 48% on Rotten Tomatoes, and most panned by moviegoers in the Disney MCU with a B CinemaScore and lackluster Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak exits of 77% and 3 1/2 stars (and, yes, for those being technical, Universal’s 2003 title Hulk, which was executive produced by Kevin Feige, is the worst-received Marvel movie ever with a B-). Personally, after seeing Eternals, I couldn’t even tell you what it’s about; they lure you in thinking one of the characters is a villain, and then they’re not, and at the end of the day, the payoff isn’t as seamless as learning who was Keyser Soze at the end of The Usual Suspects.

Between reviews and audience exits, these are not the type of results we are used to from Marvel, which typically yields platinum in both areas. From what we know about their sausage-making machine of test screenings with previous MCU filmmakers, and the Feige touch, there’s usually safeguards in place to prevent such complications from ensuing. It’s not clear what went sideways here. The MCU has a great reputation for catapulting indie filmmakers with a unique voice, (i.e. Taikia Waititi, Jon Watts, etc.) and harnessing them to display their visions within the parameters of the comic book environment. While Marvel, of course, had told ensemble stories before with the Avengers franchise and Captain America: Civil War, quite often many of the characters were already set-up in previous standalone films.

That wasn’t the case here in Eternals, and we learned on Deadline’s Hero Nation that there originally were 12 main characters mapped out on paper before Marvel scaled back to ten. Perhaps Eternals would have been best-served as a Disney+ series. Anyway you cut it, I’m sure Eternals is a lesson learned by Marvel.

To give you an idea of the impact of how running time impacts the box office, analytics corp EntTelligence reports that Eternals on its Thursday night preview, with a 6PM start time and 2 hour 37 minute running time, only had, on average, two large format showtimes across the nation.

Remember, large format ticket sales are the driver of fanboy movies. Compare this to Venom: Let There Be Carnage, which has a running time that’s an hour less, and started showtimes at 4PM, and Sony got in an average of four large format showtimes on that sequel’s Thursday night.

In the same breath, while we’re assessing the less-than-par results here for Eternals, we can’t kick Disney in the teeth for sticking to a theatrical window with this movie. Exhibition has plenty to be thankful for: Disney didn’t become seduced and pull another day-and-date theatrical release with Eternals on Disney+ Premier, which would further dilute ticket sales.

Why should exhibition be grateful for a less-than-par opening of an MCU movie? What do we mean by that? Because, according to EntTelligence, attendance for Eternals has been consistent throughout its opening day: 25% of the crowd watched it before 6PM, 50%+ watched the movie during key evening showtimes, while 22.5% saw it after 9PM. For a multiplex, I’m told, that’s a wonderful stream of daily business. They never want a movie that weighs too heavily in one day part, i.e. matinees (and it stands to reason key evening times are prime time for business on any film).

We have to give praise here to those major studios who are continuing to show heft in rolling out movies on the big screen, underscoring the tried-and-true worth of the windows economics model. The studios are sticking their necks out there by putting movies in theaters, and in doing so, have their box office come under the scrutiny of the media and the industry, even as the marketplace looks to fully restore itself. The streamers, in their shielding of viewership numbers and box office whenever they release a movie in theaters, are avoiding such analysis. Now, that’s not right.

That’s when we turn our attention to Netflix’s one week theatrical release of the $200M Dwayne Johnson, Gal Gadot, and Ryan Reynolds production Red Notice. Now, while Netflix has been very good about revealing their global viewership figures publicly down the road, as opposed to other streamers, and I’m sure Red Notice will rank among their most-watched movies (how can it not?) when it drops on Nov. 12, Netflix is shielding their box office in Comscore from rival distributors, which isn’t proper box office etiquette. I also hear the movie, which is booked in 750 theaters, is grossing well under $1M. Like, not even close.

At a time when exhibition needs product, and the holiday corridor could benefit from a couple more popcorn movies, how does a film as big as Red Notice not receive a wide release? And why, Netflix, not prop Red Notice and provide it with more juice by giving it a theatrical release and boosting its profile with a big box office opening? True, it’s not very well-reviewed at 43% Rotten. But even some of the worst-reviewed Johnson movies, i.e. Skyscraper with 48% Rotten, can deliver a solid opening at the box office, that film seeing $24.9M.

Even Jungle Cruise, with a day-and-date theatrical Disney+ Premier opening, debuted to $35M. Exhibition sure would love some of that cash. Netflix has given their awards bait a three-week theatrical window, why not Red Notice? The only plausible reason why Red Notice is one week is to qualify its below-the-line creatives for Oscars.

More to chew on with Red Notice: Distribution sources tell me that even if the Netflix movie sold every seat in every theater where it’s booked, the most it could make is $3M. This, versus the amount of seats which were available for Army of the Dead, which carried a maximum potential in its opening weekend of $8.5M. In short, not as many showtimes, not as many available seats. Keep in mind, a full sell-out on the Netflix movies are unlikely, given how the average theater capacity per showtime for any movie hovers between 20%-35%. We hear that the average ticket price for Red Notice is $9.83, versus Army of the Dead‘s $10.86, and The Harder They Fall‘s $10.30.

NEON’s Spencer saw its best results in the Northeast and Canada. However, we hear that only a handful of core runs were good. Pic pulled in 62% female, 85% over 25 with 55% of those attending between 25-44, per PostTrak.  Low exits here at 74% positive and a 46% recommend. Diversity demos were 70% Caucasian, 15% Latino and Hispanic, 3% African America and 12% Asian/other. Currently, we have the movie tied for 8th place and $2M with Qube Cinema’s Annaatthe. 

Annaatthe from filmmaker Siva is booked at 398 runs in 109 markets, and continues to show the vibrancy of Tamil and Telugu language releases. Pic put up big figures in NYC, San Francisco, Boston, Dallas, DC Seattle, Austin, Toronto and Vancouver for a theater average of $5K. The movie follows Kaaliyan whose sister marries and moves to Kolkata. There she faces unknown threats, until her brother comes to the rescue.

Top 10:

1.) Eternals (Dis) 4,090 theaters, Fri $30.7M, 3-day $70M/Wk 1

2.) Dune (WB) 3,546 (-579) theaters, Fri $2.25M (-54%)/3-day $6.4M (-58%)/Total $82.7M/Wk 3

3.) No Time to Die (UAR) 3,007 (-500) theaters, Fri $1.77M (-26%), 3-day $6.15M (-21%), Total: $143.1M/Wk 5

4.) Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony) 2,640 (-638) theaters, Fri $1.18M (-27%), 3-day $4.1M (-29%)/Total $196.6M/Wk 6

5.) Ron’s Gone Wrong (Dis/20th) 2,650 (-910) theaters, Fri $831K (-27%), 3-day $3.2M (-14%)/Total $17.2M//Wk 3

6.) The French Dispatch (Sea) 1,205 (+417) theaters Fri $819K (-25%), 3-day $2.6M (even)/Total $8.4M/Wk 3

7.) Halloween Kills (Uni) 3,098 (-518) theaters Fri $680K (-73%), 3-day $2.2M (-75%)/Total $89.6M/4

8.) Spencer (NEON) 996 theaters, Fri $769K, 3-day $2M/Wk 1

8.) Annaatthe (Qube) 398 theaters, Fri $683K, 3-day $2M/Wk 1

10.) Antlers (Sea) 2,800 theaters, Fri $606K (-64%), 3-day $1.95M (-54%), Total $7.6M/Wk 2

11.) Last Night in Soho (Foc) 3,016 theaters, Fri $570K (-70%), 3-day $1.84M (-56%), Total $7.6M/Wk 2

UPDATED, Friday midday: Disney’s Eternals is heading toward a $30 million Friday, including those $9.5M previews from last night. Given that Friday is typically around 40% of the weekend, this will put the Chloé Zhao-directed movie in the $70M-$75M range from what we’ve figured. Again, this could fluctuate up or down by Saturday morning.

Do the fans keep coming out for this MCU Phase 4 title is integral in Marvel’s multi-universe storyline laid out in Shang-Chi and Disney+’s Loki and WandaVision? Audience scores were low last night from the fervent Marvel set; we’ll see how CinemaScore does tonight. In pre-pandemic times we’d be whining about a Marvel title that’s underperforming, however, exhibition isn’t complaining: There’s more to come this holiday season, and Sony/Marvel/Disney’s Spider-Man: No Way Home which will have cameos from Doctor Strange and others from the older Sam Raimi Spider-Man universe is expected to blow the roofs of movie theaters come December.

Also factor in that for a deeper-universe piece of Marvel IP, this is a really long movie. It’s one thing to have a finale like Avengers: Endgame at 3 hours and 1 minute, but something new? At 2 hours and 37 minutes, Eternals is longer than Black Panther (2:14), Captain Marvel (2:03) and Guardians of the Galaxy (2:01), and even previous November MCU titles Thor Ragnarok (2:10), Doctor Strange (1:55) and Thor: The Dark World (1:52). Longer running times means fewer rotations in auditoriums, and during a lingering pandemic, a short movie length is a key to B.O. success.

As we reported earlier, Disney lined up $100M in brand marketing partners for Eternals. 

PREVOUSLY, Friday AM: Disney/Marvel’s Eternals, based on the 1976 Jack Kirby comic characters, struck up $9.5 million at the domestic box office on Thursday from previews that began at 6 p.m. That marks the third best preview night of the pandemic behind Disney/Marvel’s Black Widow in early July ($13.2M from showtimes that began at 5 p.m.) and Sony’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($11.6M from 4 p.m.).

It’s another great result that indicates the ongoing rebound of cinema after a robust October rang up the best monthly domestic box office of the pandemic with $638M; and a fantastic start as we enter the two-month period of holiday moviegoing.

Eternals’ Thursday is also ahead of Disney/Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, which grossed an $8.8M on its Thursday night. Eternals is also slightly ahead of MCU pre-pandemic November Thursday nights for Doctor Strange ($9.4M) and Thor: The Dark World ($7.1M).

Like with any superhero movie the question is how front-loaded Eternals is, but that’s an ever bigger headscratcher in this case because it’s the worst reviewed MCU title to date at 49% Rotten — not to mention it has a running time of 2 hours and 37 minutes. Bad reviews didn’t stop the Venom movies from reaching great openings; the first movie scored an $80.2M  domestic opening and the latest Venom 2 holds the best opening during the pandemic with $90M. Both of those titles received B+ CinemaScores. Already, Eternals in last night’s PostTrak earned a low 75% positive and 3 1/2 stars from general audiences, and a 57% recommend. Kids under 12 rated the film better with four stars and 90% positive, and a 65% definite recommend. Audience turnout was 42% men over 25, 22% men under 25, 21% females over 25, and 14% females under 25. We’ll update you as these Comscore/Screen Engine exits change throughout the weekend.

Tracking has Eternals opening $75M-plus at 4,090 theaters. The Chloé Zhao-directed movie is the fourth MCU title to play November, the previous top openings being 2017’s Thor: Ragnarok ($122.7M), Thor: The Dark World ($85.7M) and Doctor Strange ($85M).

In regards to Thursday night previews’ share of opening-day B.O., Shang-Chi‘s repped 30% of its $29.5M Friday, while Thor: The Dark World‘s repped 22% of its $31.89M Friday. Doctor Strange‘s previews repped 29% of its $32.58M Friday.

Warner Bros and Legendary’s Dune, even though it was in homes on HBO Max, led in its second week, grossing $22.5M, off 58% from its first week of $53.8M. Pic’s running total through two weeks is $76.3M after grossing $1.25M Thursday, -34%. Some rivals see it shy of $100M at the domestic B.O., but I’m giving the benefit of the doubt here to Warner Bros, which got the previous Legendary pandemic title Godzilla vs. Kong past the century mark. Dune loses its Imax screens and PLFs to Eternals this weekend. The Denis Villeneuve-directed sci-fi reboot of the Frank Herbert novel has 17 days left on HBO Max.