March of 2023 will be seen as one for the record books with the best showing for three long-running franchises, setting things up for a month that’s often known more as a buffer before the bigger summer releases. This April will only be slightly different, since it starts with one of the first major family films of the year, considering that “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” was released last December. Read on for Gold Derby’s April 2023 box office preview.

“The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Universal) – April 5

For fans of the Nintendo video game series that started way back in the ’80s with “Donkey Kong” and has been generating new and younger fans with each release ever since, “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” may be just the thing to get families back into theaters. Unlike the 1993 live-action movie, this is an animated film from Illumination – the company behind “Despicable Me,” “Minions” and “Secret Life of Pets” – with a voice cast that includes Chris Pratt (as Mario), Charlie Day (as Luigi), Anya Taylor-Joy (voicing Princess Peach), as well as Jack Black, Keegan Michael-Key and Seth Rogen. Although this opens on a Wednesday, it will benefit greatly from the Easter weekend and the start of spring break where lots of families with small kids will be looking for ways to entertain them, and this is the first major family film of the year, which will help. Expect it to make upwards of $70 million its opening weekend, maybe even in just the three-day part of the weekend.

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Other than that, everything else this month is likely to be somewhat hit or miss…

“Evil Dead Rise” (Warner Bros) – April 21

It’s been 10 years since Sam Raimi brought his popular “Evil Dead” horror franchise back to theaters with a remake starring Jane Levy, and he’s now giving it another go with this new installment involving two estranged sisters trying to survive a night against the same flesh-possessing demons. Directed by Lee Cronin (“The Hole in the Ground”), this recently got a high-profile premiere at the SXSW Film Festival (just like the previous reboot), and there’s a good chance this ultra-gory horror flick could open similarly with more than $25 million later in the month.

“Renfield” (Universal) – April 14

Another genre movie that could go in either direction is this horror-comedy from director Chris McKay (“The Tomorrow War”), starring Nicholas Hoult as the title character, the obedient servant in a toxic relationship with his master Dracula, played by none other than Nicolas Cage. Also starring Awkwafina, this super gory high-concept idea based on the lore of Bram Stoker’s world-famous vampire could maybe get some younger interest, even if early trailers did’t look great. It’s also opening against another horror film in “The Pope’s Exorcist” (see below), but it’s probably going to target younger audiences, which could be enough for a $16 to 18 million opening, give or take.

“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate) – April 28

Possibly the biggest surprise of the month might be this adaptation of Judy Blume‘s classic young adult novel from 1970, which will hit theaters just one week after the doc Judy Blume Forever hits Prime Video, following its well-received debut at the Sundance Film Festival. Adapted and directed by Kelly Fremon Craig (“The Edge of Seventeen”) and starring Rachel McAdams, this dramedy benefits from being one of the few female-targeted movies of the month from teen and tween girls to those who remember the books from their childhoods. It very well could surprise with an opening in the $15 to 20 million range.

“Beau is Afraid” (A24) – April 14 (New York, L.A.), April 21 (nationwide)

“Hereditary” and “Midsommar” director Ari Aster returns with his latest bizarro horror-thriller, this one starring Oscar winner Joaquin Phoenix as an anxious man whose mother recently died. After that, I couldn’t begin to explain to you what I saw in the trailer. After the success of Aster’s previous two films, A24 is likely to give this a very wide release, which should help it make upwards of $10 million opening weekend, though opening this against “Evil Dead Rise” does seem rather counter-interuitive. Aster’s movie will be seeking far more adventurous horror fans than the other horror movie opening this weekend. (A24 clearly realize the curiosity pot for this movie has been stirred enough to open the movie in New York and L.A. one week earlier before going nationwide.)

“Air” (Amazon) – April 5

Ben Affleck‘s new ensemble drama received rave reviews out of its SXSW debut, and it will be the widest theatrical release by Amazon Studios in quite some time. Starring Matt Damon as Nike basketball talent scout, Sonny Vaccaro, “Air” retells the story of how the sneaker company signed 18-year-old future basketball great Michael Jordan to endorse their sneakers, turning it into a multi-billion dollar gamble. The cast also includes Affleck as Nike boss Phil Knight, as well as Jason Bateman, Chris Messina, Chris Tucker and Viola Davis as Jordan’s overly-protective mother. Also opening on the Wednesday before Easter, this should be able to bring in $10 to $12 million in its first five days. Look for more about this in the week’s weekend preview.

“Suzume” (Crunchyroll) – April 14

The popularity of Japanese anime has been booming in recent years, and Crunchyroll’s latest theatrical release is the highly-anticipated new film from Makoto Shinkai, director of the beloved “Your Name.” and “Weathering with You.” His first new movie in more than three years is a road movie action-adventure, which should allow Crunchyroll to give this a fairly wide release, including IMAX, and it should do well against a number of other releases this weekend. Expect this one to open in the $12 to 15 million range or maybe even higher as American Anime fans flock to see it.

“Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant” (MGM) – April 21

Filmmaker Guy Ritchie returns with his second movie of the year, this one being a war drama starring Jake Gyllenhaal as US Army Sergeant John Kinley and his relationship with the Afghan interpreter Ahmed (Dar Salim), who saved his life. Although Ritchie’s last film “Operation Fortune” – another STXfilms loose end – and Gyllenhaal’s 2022 action film, “Ambulance,” didn’t do particularly well, and MGM hasn’t had great luck with adult-targeted fare. War movies like this one have done very well (see Mark Wahlberg‘s “Lone Survivor” and Clint Eastwood’s “American Sniper”) or very poorly (Doug Liman‘s “The Wall”) with older guys. This one should end up somewhere in between with an opening between $9 and 11 million.

“The Pope’s Exorcist” (Sony) – April 14

Russell Crowe stars as the title character in this horror-thriller from “Overlord” director Julius Avery based on the actual case files of Father Gabriele Amorth, Chief Exorcist of the Vatican, who is investigating the possession of a young boy. These kinds of movies used to do very well – see Scott Derickson‘s 2005 thriller “The Exorcism of Emily Rose” as an example  – but they’re starting to fall out of favor and opening this against “Renfield” is going to force horror fans to make choices. Also, Crowe just isn’t the box office draw he once was, despite his MCU debut as Hercules in last year’s “Thor: Love and Thunder.” This one could open with $10 million in the best of circumstances, but probably won’t do much if Sony treats it like it did its recent sci-fi thriller, “65.”

“Big George Foreman” (Sony) – April 28

With the ridiculously long subtitle of “The Miraculous Story of the Once and Future Heavyweight Champion of the World,” this sports biopic about the boxing great who famously fought Muhammad Ali in the “Rumble in the Jungle,” is directed by George Tillman, Jr (The Hate U Give). Starring Khris Davis (Space Jam Legacy) as the boxing (and grilling) legend, it might rely on good reviews and an older moviegoing audience than this month’s “Creed III.” It might be able to make $10 million its opening weekend, but as of now, very few people may even know this movie exists.

“Mafia Mamma” (Bleecker Street)   – April 14

Toni Collette and Monica Belluci star in this comedy directed by Catherine Hardwicke (“Twilight”), Colette playing an American woman who inherits her grandfather’s Mafia empire, travelling to Italy to take over the family business. It looks funny, but it might get a more moderate release than other movies opening in that highly busy weekend.

“Paint” (IFC Films) – April 7 

Owen Wilson stars as a character clearly inspired by PBS painting mainstay Bob Ross, playing Carl Nargle who is enjoying enormous success until a younger and much better artist comes along that steals Carl’s thunder. IFC continues to release smaller indies nationwide, and in this case, it might pay off with an opening in the $2 to 3 million range, although it does have hefty competition from Affleck and Amazon’s “Air” this weekend.

“Sweetwater” (Briarcliff) – April 14

Directed by Argentine music video director Martín Guigui, this biopic about Nat “Sweetwater” Clifton, the first African-American who played in the NBA, played by Everett Osborne, is getting such a low-key release by the former Open Road, it’s hard to imagine it will that wide or it will find much of an audience, even if it’s a story of interest.

There are also a number of movies this month getting smaller and more limited releases, although a few may expand wider.

“How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (NEON) – April 7

A group of environmental activists plan on disrupting an oil pipeline in this movie directed by Daniel Goldhaber (“Cam”), who, like “Evil Dead Rise” director Lee Cronin above, directed a few episodes of Sam Raimi’s “50 States of Fright.”

“Joyland”  (Oscilloscope) – April 7

Directed by Saim Sadiq, Pakistan’s Oscar submission (which was shortlisted), has been playing on the film festival since last May’s Cannes Film Festival. It’s about a young man in a traditional Pakistani family who takes a job as a backup dancer in a Bollywood-style burlesque and falls for the trans woman who runs it.

“Showing Up” (A24) – April 7

“First Cow” director Kelly Reichardt‘s new drama stars recent Oscar nominees Michelle Williams and Hong Chau as two of the denizens of an artist community who run into issues with each other due to their differing ways of viewing the world.

“Quasi” (Hulu) – April 20

Although this monthly preview tends to focus on theatrical releases, I couldn’t ignore the fact that the Broken Lizard comedy troupe (of the famed “Super Troopers” comedies) have a new movie hitting Hulu this month with their take on Victor Hugo‘s “The Hunchback of Notre Dame.”

“Chevalier” (Searchlight) – April 21

A terrific film from last year’s Toronto International Film Festival features Kelvin Harrison, Jr. as Joseph Bologne, the little-known French composer from the 18th Century who received the title of “Chevalier” from no-less than Marie Antoinette (played by Lucy Boynton), but his dalliances with a married opera singer (Samara Weaving) and the French Queen’s problems with the masses revolting threaten his burgeoning career.

“Other People’s Children” (Music Box Films) – April 21

Rebecca Zlotowski‘s French drama stars Belgian actress Virginie Efira (“Elle”) as a schoolteacher trying to have a biological child, until she starts dating a single father (Roschdy Zem), becoming fond of his daughter Leila (Callie Ferreira-Goncalves).

“To Catch a Killer” (Vertical) – April 21

In this new crime-thriller from Damián Szifron (“Wild Tales”) stars Shailene Woodley and Ben Mendelsohn as a Boston police officer and FBI agent looking for a serial killer plaguing the city.

“Carmen” (Sony Pictures Classics) – April 21

Choreographer Benjamin Millepied‘s modern-day take on the classic opera – possibly in a similar vein as Baz Luhrmann‘s “Romeo+Juliet” — stars recent Oscar nominee Paul Mescal and “Scream” star Melissa Barrera as a U.S. Marine and a Mexican dancer who fall in love after running from an incident on the border. (There’s a chance Sony Classics might try to release this wider.)

“Sisu” (Lionsgate) – April 28

Jalmari Helander‘s Finnish revenge action-thriller about an ex-soldier who finds a cache of gold he has to protect from Nazi soldiers, received much buzz as part of the Toronto Film Festival’s “Midnight Madness” track last year.

“Polite Society” (Focus Features) – April 28

Nida Manzoor‘s British comedy is about the wildly imaginative Pakistani Ria Khan (Priya Kansara), who hopes to disrupt her older sister’s wedding to save her from an arranged marriage, enlisting her friends to pull of an elaborate heist.

On top of all that, April is producing a number of prominent re-releases, including “The Big Lebowski,” “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” and “Spirited Away.”

Check back next Wednesday for a deeper dive into the Easter weekend’s new releases, including “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and Ben Affleck‘s “Air.”

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