SUNDAY AM: WRITETHRU after Saturday update Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes won Black Friday and Saturday at the box office, respectively with $11.4M and $11.2M, soaring above a Disney animated movie (Wish) which are typically the champs of Thanksgiving weekend, and big streamer Apple’s $200M war epic, Napoleon, for a No. 1 win over the holiday stretch with a 3-day $28.8M and 5-day of $42M.

The Francis Lawrence-directed prequel should hit $100M by Monday. Quite often, one hears the tired line from distributors when they come in under expectations with an opening weekend, “We look forward to a great run during the holidays.” However, that was no line, but a bonafide truth for Songbirds & Snakes. Holiday moviegoers woke up to the great movie that it is. The industry domestic endgame for this movie is around $150M.

Disney Animation’s Wish came in third on Friday and Saturday (eeks) with respectively $8M and $7M, behind Apple Original Production’s Sony-distributed Napoleon, which earned an estimated $8.4M on Friday and $7.5M yesterday. In the end, it was Napoleon who reaped the spoils of the Thanksgiving box office in second over Disney’s Wish, with a 5-day of $32.5M to $31.7M. Global on Napoleon is $78.8M, besting the $44M worldwide start of Apple’s Killers of the Flower Moon. Napoleon‘s 3-day is $20.4M, while Wish is $19.5M. More on Wish in a bit…

Overall ticket sales for the Wednesday through Sunday frame of Thanksgiving came in at an estimated $173.9M, which is the best post-pandemic for the holiday, besting 2022’s $134M and 2021’s $142M. However, we’re still far off from pre-pandemic Thanksgiving moviegoing, 2019 having racked up $263.4M, powered by Frozen 2, and 2018 hitting a record $315.6M.

Napoleon, with a running time of 2 hours and 38 minutes, made more in its first five days at the domestic box office than Apple’s 3 1/2 hour Killers of the Flower Moon, which did $28.2M — admittedly, that’s because of the holiday. Those PLF and Imax screens are driving 34% of ticket sales so far, with the AMC Lincoln Square Theatre in NY the highest-grossing cinema in the country, with a running total through Saturday of $105K. Imax alone did $5.3M from 399 North American auditoriums, repping 16% of Napoleon‘s domestic weekend.

The 3-day opening here for Napoleon, despite its lofty cost, is in the vicinity of Scott’s Exodus: Gods and Kings which opened to $24.1M (a B- CinemaScore, just like Napoleon) and legged out due to the Christmas holiday to $65M. Exodus also rallied abroad, seeing 76% of its $268M global total from offshore ticket sales. That said, Napoleon overperformed and bested its OK audiences exits. That momentum provides the movie with more hope in the long run over the holiday season than Scott’s Moses movie, which was mired in faith-based controversy at the time of its release.

Sony’s distribution deal, I understand, is around 8% of the box office, with Apple backstopping marketing costs. Sony recoups its marketing costs before monies go to Apple. If box office falls short of marketing costs, than Apple covers that gap. However, that’s not expected, given that ticket sales are solid abroad, which was always the play here for the movie.

Audiences are not entirely over the moon about the movie, with 72% positive on PostTrak, a 46% recommend, and guys still outpacing women, 65% to 35%. Best grades for the movie come from the 18-24 set (80%, but only 17% of the crowd) and men under 25 (77%, 15% of ticketholders). Close to half of the audience was between 18-34, with 25-34 being the biggest demo at close to a third. Diversity mix was 57% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 9% Black, and 12% Asian/other.  

And as far as the withering of Wish.…it’s no surprise that CEO Bob Iger said days before the movie’s release on an earnings call that Disney “lost some focus” when it came to the quality of their pics this past year. They’re used to winning on both fronts, with critics and audiences, and the $175M-$200M production of Wish was pummeled by critics, but redeemed by moms and girls, with an overall A- CinemaScore.

When we start hearing things such as how the lackluster summer Disney/Pixar pic Elemental ($154.4M domestic, $496M WW) was one of the biggest movies on Disney+ (26.4M global views in first five days of its release), it’s clear the Mouse House is in competition with itself. On the upside, theatrical boosts the downstream potential. But simultaneously, if the movie looks same old-same old, then families aren’t rushing out to it. They’ll wait for it on Disney+.

Even though Disney executed the best D-Day marketing blitzkrieg during an actors strike with Wish — (i.e. promo partners like McDonalds, Neiman Marcus, Verizon, Cheerios), notched the most-viewed Disney trailer on TikTok in first 24 hours, and had synergies on FX, Freeform, Disney+ and ABC, with the latter’s Dancing With the Stars “Disney’s 100 Night” kicking off a Wish sweepstakes — nobody is rushing to see the movie, and that’s two-fold: They’ve seen this plug-and-play princess movie before, with the silly sidekicks (a talking goat and puffy star), and they can wait for this.

Also, it’s not clear in the trailers what this movie is about…wishing on stars? Critics observed and smelled this clearly, with The Boston Globe‘s Odie Henderson griping, “This fairy tale feels more like a corporate product than a magical event; it’s a limp dissertation on Disney’s motto that, “When you wish upon a star, your dreams come true,” and AP’s Lindsey Bahr pointing out, “Wish is harmless holiday programming for the family. But it’s strange to watch a movie about celebrating the individual ‘star’ in everyone that feels like it was made by mandate, not a dream.” Any argued similarities between the $30M opening of Trolls Band Together and Wish can be dashed: The former Uni/DreamWorks Animation movie cost $95M to the latter, which cost double. End point.

Says one razor-sharp feature distribution analyst about Wish, “Since the pandemic, not a single original IP animated film has been able to open above $30M. That suggests that studios have to work extra hard to create the urgency that comes with familiar IP. Otherwise, they’ll just wait to watch it at home. That speaks to more systemic problems with the genre.”

They also add about Wish, “You know you’re in trouble when the narrative about a film is that it’s more about a celebration of the company’s birthday than a compelling piece of content.”

Amazon/MGM’s Saltburn saw $622K on Friday, +106% over Thursday, and another $675K on Saturday (+9%) for a 3-day of $1.7M, 5-day of $2.7M, and running total of $3M. Good numbers, we hear, in the big cities and Cinephile locations, with Alamo New Mission in San Francisco the top-grossing venue in the nation with $21K through Friday.

Chart updated with Sunday estimates:

1.) Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (LG) 3,776 theaters Fri $11.4M (+88%) Sat $11.1M Sun $6.27M 3-day $28.8M (-35%) 5-day $41.1M/Total $98.3M /Wk 2

2.) Napoleon (App/Sony) 3,500 heaters, Fri $8.4M (+94% from Thurs), Sat $7.5M Sun $4.5M 3-day $20.4M, 5-day $32.5M/Wk 1

3.) Wish (Dis) 3,900 theaters, Fri $8M (+111% from Thurs) Sat $7M Sun $4.5M 3 day $19.5M, 5-day $31.7M/Wk 1

4.) Trolls Band Together (Uni/DWA) 3,893 (+23) theaters Fri $7.1M (+170%) Sat $6.5M Sun $3.9M 3-day $17.5M (-42%), 5-day $25.3M Total $64.4M/Wk

5.) Thanksgiving (Sony) 3,204 theaters, Fri $2.78M (+36%) Sat $2.78M Sun $1.58M 3-day $7.1M (-31%) 5-day $11.1M,Total $24.1M/Wk 2

6.) The Marvels (Dis) 4,030 theaters Fri $2.4M (+95%) Sat $2.5M Sun $1.5M 3-day $6.4M (-37%) 5-day $9.2M Total $76.8M/Wk 3

7.) The Holdovers (Foc) 1601 (+123) theaters Fri $1M (+96%) Sat $1M Sun $610K 3-day $2.75M (+2%), 5-day $3.75M Total $12.9M/Wk 5

8.) Saltburn (AMZ/MGM) 1,566 (+1559) Fri $622K (+106% from Thurs) Sat $675K Sun $438K 3-day $1.735M (+426%) 5-day $2.72M, Total $3M/Wk 2

9.) Next Goal Wins (Sea) 2,240 theaters Fri $665K (+40%) Sat $625K Sun $410K 3-day $1.7M (-32%) 5-day $2.57M/Total $5.7M Wk 2

10.) Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (AMC) 938 (-635) theaters, Fri $900K (+245%) Sat $833K Sun $597K 3-day $2.33M (-16%)/5-day $2.52M Total $178.3M/ Wk 7

11.) Five Nights at Freddy’s (Uni) 1,754 (-1075) theaters, Fri $650K (+150% from Thurs) Sat $710K Sun $390K 3-day $1.75M (-51%), 5-day $2.5M Total $136.2M/Wk 5

BLACK FRIDAY Update: Moviegoing is always big on Black Friday, often one of the highest grossing days of the year with today looking to clock $47.3M, +28% from the same exact day a year ago. Thanksgiving is always a down day due to dinners, and this year was -35% from Wednesday with $22.7M. However, yesterday’s holiday was also up over 2022 Turkey Day by +28% with $17.7M, yesterday ruled by Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes with $5.9M (-19% from Wednesday).

Industry estimates still see the Suzanne Collins prequel winning the Thanksgiving stretch with a 3-day of $29.3M, 5-day of $42.7M at 3,776 theaters. A $100M running total by Sunday is within sight. Essentially more teens showed up yesterday for Songbirds & Snakes than families did for Wish.

Apple Original Production’s Napoleon via Sony came in second on Thanksgiving with $4.375M (-43% from Wednesday) at 3,500 locations which includes PLFs and Imax. The Ridley Scott directed war epic is expected to rank third over the weekend with a 3-day of $19.6M and 5-day between $30M-$33M. The studio has been emphasizing the offshore play for the epic with a $70M-$73M global projection for the Joaquin Phoenix, Vanessa Kirby starring biopic.

RelishMix counts a social media universe for the movie at 287.7M, 12% ahead of genre norms thanks to the “double studio factor of Sony and Apple in the movie’s stats” across Facebook, X, YouTube, Instagram and TikTok combined. Napoleon‘s social media reach, though below Oppenheimer‘s massive 589M before opening, is well ahead of 1917‘s 124.4M and near Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny‘s 296.4M. Kirby leads the cast in social media promotion with 2.1M fans. That said, convo is “mixed” per RelishMix “with critical notes stemming from historical inaccuracies including ‘Napoleon’s trademark American accent.’ But just like Napoleon’s real-life opponents, critics of Ridley Scott’s dramatic venture are being quickly struck down by battle cries of positivity. Fans are enamored with the picture’s scale, calling it ‘The quintessential historical epic by the quintessential historical epic director.’ Scott isn’t the only thing exciting fans as Joaquin Phoenix as a heavy draw for filmgoers. ‘The Joker playing Napoleon?! Say no more. I’m in.’ with Oscars cries for the film, Ridley and for Joaquin.”

Does Disney’s animated Wish close the gap and best Songbirds & Snakes today which is considered the best day for family moviegoing? Yesterday the movie featuring the voices of Oscar winner Ariana DeBose and Chris Pine saw $3.9M, -53%, in what’s looking like a $35M-$38M 5-day in No. 2, estimated 3-day of $20.5M at 3,900.

RelishMix shows that even though Wish‘s social media universe stands at 343.7M across Facebook, X, YouTube, Instagram and TikTok –which is far below Super Mario Bros’ 644M and Frozen 2‘s 901M reach– it’s still 11% above comps with the latter platform’s views over-indexing. “Reductions in use and postings on X/Twitter are just beginning to be noticed, but have not yet had an impact on marketing performance yet,” reports the social media analytics firm.

There’s hope yet for the film still this weekend with online chatter running positive among “fans who celebrate 100 years of Disney and welcome an original tale that they feel represents all the things Disney” says RelishMix. There are callouts to the animation style, which is a combo of 2D and 3D. After last Thanksgiving’s Strange World, fans are looking for a return to princess form for the Mouse House. RelishMix observes, “Debose has full rein over the cast’s activation as she’s fully reactivated to her 800K fanbase.” She performed the title song yesterday from Disneyland Paris on Good Morning America:

Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Trolls Band Together at 3,870 theaters saw $2.6M yesterday, -49% from Wednesday, for a projected 3-day of $15.4M (-49%), 5-day of $23.2M and running total by Sunday of $62.3M.

TriStar Pictures and Spyglass Media Group’s genre pic Thanksgiving made $2M, +6% from Wednesday from 3,204 locations. Pic’s 3-day outlook is $10M, a great -3% hold, 5-day is $13.9M in fifth place with a running total by Sunday of $26.9M.

Outside the top 5, but inside the top 10, Amazon MGM’s expansion of Saltburn at 1,566 saw $301K yesterday for a current projected 3-day of $1.56M, $2.55M 5-day and $2.93M running total.

Black Friday will not only be great for cinemas, but also for stores with Adobe seeing today at $9.6B, +5.7% over last year despite the economy mired in inflation.

THANKSGIVING DAY UPDATE: One piece of good news especially as the marketplace comes away from the actors strike is that this Thanksgiving stretch of Wednesday to Sunday is expected to gross around $190M for all movies per industry estimates, which is the highest post-pandemic, besting the 5-day takes of 2022 ($134M) and 2021 ($142M).

That said we are far from the Comscore recorded box office record for Thanksgiving –that was 2018 with $315.6M when Ralph Breaks the Internet led the chart– and we’re still below the pre-pandemic 2019 5-day of $263.4M when Frozen 2 was No. 1.

Here’s a surprise twist as we head into the holiday: Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes is neck in neck with Disney’s Wish for No. 1. Even though Songbirds & Snakes didn’t win Wednesday with $7.28M behind Wish ($8.3M) and Apple’s Sony distributed Napoleon ($7.7M), industry estimates have the Francis Lawrence directed prequel at around $41.8M (3-day $29.3M, -34%) over Wednesday-Sunday to Wish‘s $40.5M ($27.3M). It’s going to be close. Hunger Games movies have shown to always hold well throughout the holidays, and well, here’s evidence of that despite the fact that the movie didn’t come roaring out of the gates last weekend with a $44.6M opening. As we always pointed out, the pic’s prime and biggest demo of women under 25 gave the prequel its best grade at 93% last weekend after showing up at 37%. That’s where the aorta of the word of mouth resides. By Sunday, Songbirds & Snakes should stand at $98M, which would see its 10-day cume pacing 16% behind Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald ($116.6M); that Harry Potter spinoff sequel ending its domestic run at $159.6M.

Disney’s Wish gets an A- CinemaScore which isn’t shabby, just under Thanksgiving princess pics Encanto (A) and Tangled (A+) and Frozen (A+), but the same as Frozen II (A-). Family and kids under 12 gave the animated pic 4.5 stars out of 5 on Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak. Wish is 3 1/2 stars with general audiences and 71%. Overall 65% women to 35% men. Get this: guys liked it better than women, 80% to 65%. Might be that bubbly star in the movie that’s warming dudes’ hearts. Women over 25 were the biggest turnout at 37% (67% grade), women under 25 at 24% (62% grade), men under 25 at 22% (80% grade), and men over 25 at 17% (also 80% grade).

Napoleon is well ahead of its 5-day projection of $22M with $29M-$33M (industry estimate stands at $36M) and a 3-day of $23M. Global is at $63M-$67M. The Ridley Scott directed, Joaquin Phoenix starring epic gets a B-, which is under Scott’s House of Gucci (B+), the war epic 1917 (A-) and Dunkirk (A-). RT audiences and critics see eye-to-eye at 62%. When does that happen? PostTrak was 3 1/2 stars last night and 74% positive and a 47% definite recommend. Guy heavy at 69%, with men over 25 showing up at 55% and giving pic a hard 74% grade. Women over 25 at 24% grading it 66%, followed by men under 25 at 14% (the best grades at 88%) and women under 25 getting pulled along at 7% (and snoozed through the movie at 69%).

Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Trolls Band Together is fourth with a $5.2M Wednesday, 3-day of $18.6M (-38%) and 5-day of $27M and ten-day running total of $66.2M by Sunday, 30% ahead of Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at the same point in time ($50.9M).

TriStar Pictures and Spyglass Media Group’s Eli Roth horror movie Thanksgiving made $1.85M yesterday at 3,204 locations. Five day is $10.1M with a running total of $23.2M by Sunday.

Outside the top five is the expansion of Amazon MGM’s Emerald Fennell directed Saltburn from seven locations in NY, LA and Austin to 1,566. Wednesday was $684K, 3-day is $1.9M, 5-day $3M and running total $3.3M. The 3-day is close to what last year’s Searchlight’s Banshees of Inisherin did in its wide break to 890 theatres ($2M) and higher than the wide expansion of Tar ($1M at 1,087 theaters). The Oscar winning filmmaker’s thriller noir about the bromance between Oxford University colleagues gets a B- CinemaScore to her directorial debut Promising Young Woman‘s B+. PostTrak is 3 1/2 stars and 75% and a 42% definite recommend. Interesting turnout for the Jacob Elordi movie with guys edging out women 53% to 47%. Also, men under 25, who showed up at only 11%, gave the pic its best grades at 83%. Men over 25 were dominant at 42% (75% grade), followed by women over 25 (24% and 76% grade) and women under 25 (23% and a 71% grade). The wide blast here for Saltburn is significantly higher than the wide opening of Fennell’s Promising Young Woman which hit theaters at a time when several circuits were closed and NYC and LA not open ($719K at 1,310 theaters) due to Covid over Christmas 2020.

On average due to feasting today, overall Thanksgiving day grosses for the top 20 films will be down 20% from Wednesday’s results with Black Friday spiking over Turkey day by +92% on average.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: The Thanksgiving stretch will see the most amount of moviegoing for this fall after being slowed down by the actors strike.

Currently the top five movie standings in terms of grosses are looking better than that of the top five of 2021, our first holiday back post-pandemic which for all titles grossed $142M per Box Office Mojo. Last Thanksgiving’s Wednesday through Sunday stretch grossed $134M for all movies. Five day projections are always tricky, so take everything now with a grain of salt.

Disney Animation’s princess movie Wish from Frozen franchise director Chris Buck and Fawn Veerasunthorn is leading with an $8.7M Wednesday (including $2.3M in previews) at 3,900 sites which will translate to a $24M-$27M 3-day and $40M-$45M 5-day. Rotten Tomatoes audience score at 84% trumps critics score which is 46%. Wish cost between $175M-$200M before P&A.

Second place will likely go per rivals to Lionsgate’s second weekend of The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes at 3,776 theaters which is seeing $7M today, +8% from Tuesday, for a 3-day of $25M-$31M (-30% to -44%), and 5-day of $36M-$45M. Even though ranges are higher than Wish, the Disney pic is bound to notch No. 1. On the high end, that would get the Francis Lawrence directed movie to $101.4M by Sunday. The 5-day on Harry Potter spinoffs Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and Fantastic Beasts Crimes of Grindelwald were $65.5M and $42.3M. The last Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, which is not a comp here, did $76M over its Thanksgiving holiday stretch back in 2015.

Apple Original Production’s Napoleon, distributed by Sony, at 3,500 theaters is looking at $7.4M today, including last night’s $3M, for a 3-day in the low $20M and 5-day $28-32M. That’s bound to beat the opening of Ridley Scott’s House of Gucci ($14.4M 3-day and $22M 5-day), which was also R-rated. That pic had a running time of 2 hours 38 minutes which is the same as Napoleon‘s. RT audience score is 68%, not far from critics score of 64%. Napoleon cost a reported $200M.

Fourth belongs to Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Trolls Band Together at 3,870 theaters which has a Wednesday of $5M, 3-day of $18M (-40%) and 5-day of $26.3M and running total of $65.4M.

Fifth is TriStar/Spyglass Media’s horror movie Thanksgiving with a Wednesday of $1.7M second weekend in the mid digits and $9M 5-day.

PREVIOUS: Apple Original Productions’ Ridley Scott pic Napoleon via Sony won $3M in Tuesday night previews, while Disney’s Wish took in $2.3M. Both fired off at 3 p.m. It was a good day for moviegoing overall, with 47% K-12 schools out and 20% colleges, per ComScore; that figure rises to 84%/66% today, respectively, and 100% overall Thursday and into Black Friday.

That’s an impressive number for Napoleon, given the epic war movie that it is: It’s right under what 1917 did in previews (7 p.m.) for its wide expansion back in January 2020, which was $3.25M, and ahead of Apple/Paramount’s Killers of the Flower Moon, which was $2.6M.

1917 did $13.9M on its expanded Friday at 3,434 locations before posting a 3-day of $37M. Clearly, Napoleon will have a different gross pattern. Killers of the Flower Moon‘s first Friday was $9.4M before posting a Friday-through-Sunday of $23.2M. Also, Napoleon is ahead of Ridley Scott’s previous Thanksgiving 5-day release in regards to its previews, House of Gucci, which did $1.3M. That latter comp many were throwing around in regards to Napoleon.

Napoleon is booked at 3,017 theatres including PLFs and 70MM. Rotten Tomatoes reviews are at 66% fresh.

Wish‘s preview figure includes $500K from Saturday limited sneaks. Thanksgiving Disney animated comps here are Coco ($2.3M Tuesday, $73M 5-day in 2017) and Encanto ($1.5M, $41M in 2021). Wish opens wide today in 3,900 domestic locations including Premium Large Format, 3D, D-Box and 4D screens. Its score is 50% rotten.

Tracking for Wish spotted a $45M-$50M 5-day win to Napoleon‘s $22M. Wish is PG, while Napoleon is R-rated. No PostTrak exits from last night. CinemaScore polls tonight for both movies’ opening days.

Meanwhile, Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes led all movies with $6.5M (+24% over Monday’s $5.2M) at 3,776 theaters, taking its five-day running total to $56.4M. Songbirds & Snakes will share Imax screens with Napoleon over the five-day holiday stretch. A note about the movie’s Monday: It’s the best the 2023 fall box office has seen for that day after The Equalizer 3‘s Labor Day take of $8.2M. Ditto for Songbirds & Snakes‘ Tuesday, which posted the best for the current autumn season, topping Five Nights at Freddy’s $5.2M Halloween take. Songbirds & Snakes’ 5-day outlook is in the $30M+ range.

RELATED: ‘The Hunger Games: The Ballad Of Songbirds & Snakes’ Review: A Tale Of Power And Uncertainty In Pre-Katniss Panem

Second on Tuesday was Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Trolls Band Together with $4.73M at 3,870 theaters, +45% over Monday’s $3.2M with a running total of $38M (read the review here).

TriStar and Spyglass Media’s Eli Roth horror movie Thanksgiving was third with $1.85M (+54% over Monday) from 3,204 locations, bringing its total domestic gross to $13M since Friday (review here).

Disney/Marvel Studios’ The Marvels grossed $1.5M yesterday at 4,030, +34%, for a $67M running total in the midst of its second week (review here).

Five Nights at Freddy‘s, which is on Peacock and at 2,829 theaters, made $530K yesterday, +4%, for a $133.7M running total in the middle of Week 4 (review here).