Subscribe to our FREE email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news.

Long Range Forecast — August 9, 2024

It Ends with Us | Sony
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $20M – $30M (as of 7/10)

Sony Pictures’ It Ends with Us marks the first screen adaptation of the publishing phenomenon Colleen Hoover and her best-selling novel of the same name. Adapted by Christy Hall (Daddio $767K — as of 7/7), the film is directed by Justin Baldoni (Five Feet Apart $45.7M domestic/$92.5M global), who also stars alongside Blake Lively, Jenny Slate, Hasan Minhaj, Amy Morton and Brandon Sklenar. It Ends with Us and other Hoover novels gained significant attention in 2021 thanks to TikTok’s BookTok community. In 2022 alone, Hoover held six of the top ten spots on the New York Times paperback fiction best seller list.

According to the movie’s synopsis, Lily Bloom (Blake Lively) is a woman who overcomes a traumatic childhood to embark on a new life in Boston and chase a lifelong dream of opening her own business. A chance meeting with charming neurosurgeon Ryle Kincaid (Justin Baldoni) sparks an intense connection. Still, as the two fall deeply in love, Lily begins to see sides of Ryle that remind her of her parents’ relationship. When Lily’s first love, Atlas Corrigan (Brandon Sklenar), suddenly reenters her life, her relationship with Ryle is upended.

It is worth noting that Hoover’s extremely loyal fan base calls itself “CoHorts.” Hoover’s sequel book, It Starts with Us, published in 2022, became Simon & Schuster’s most pre-ordered book of all time, selling over 800,000 copies by the end of its initial release day. Hoover’s fans should help deliver solid counterprogramming results for the author’s first film adaptation, as the film is scheduled to open within striking range of Deadpool & Wolverine, starring Lively’s husband.

Borderlands | Lionsgate
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $10M – $20M (as of 7/10)

Based on the popular looter-shooter video game of the same name, Borderlands is helmed by Eli Roth (Thanksgiving $31.9M domestic/$46.5M global, The House with a Clock in Its Walls $68.5M domestic/$131.5M global). According to the synopsis, the film follows infamous bounty hunter Lilith (Cate Blanchett) on her mission to find the missing daughter of Atlas (Edgar Ramírez). Her ragtag team of misfits – Roland (Kevin Hart), Tiny Tina (Ariana Greenblatt), Krieg (Florian Munteanu), Tannis (Jamie Lee Curtis), and the wiseass robot Claptrap (Jack Black)—must battle an alien species and dangerous bandits to uncover one of Pandora’s most explosive secrets.

On the list of best-selling video game franchises of all-time, Borderlands ranks #29, just ahead of Mortal Kombat and right behind the Wizarding World of Harry Potter. The long-delayed project began way back in 2015 when Leigh Whannell was in talks with Lionsgate to write and direct. After an official announcement in August of that year, the film went through years of development—with Roth eventually signing on to direct by February 2020. Initial filming took place in 2021, followed by two weeks of reshoots directed by Tim Miller in 2023 (Roth was busy on Thanksgiving).

Early buzz on the film has been negative, with social media offering little respite to rumblings of poorly-received test screenings. This long-delayed project is finally hitting theaters at the end of the summer, but pre-release buzz has us apprehensive about its prospects in the market.

Tracking Updates [as of 7/10]

Boxoffice Pro is the world’s leading reference in box office forecasts and reports, reaching 98% of decision-makers in theatrical exhibition. 

Our complete forecasting reports are updated weekly by our Boxoffice Forecasting Panel, which consists of industry professionals and leading executives representing exhibition, distribution, and premium large-format vendors. Full reports are available to all active National Association of Theatre Owners members and select industry clients.

To learn how to receive our complete forecasting solutions, please get in touch with sales@boxoffice.com. 

For media inquiries, contact press@boxoffice.com.