Top 5: Thoughts on NASCAR and Martinsville from 10 years in the future
Each week in this space, we offer five thoughts surrounding the recently completed NASCAR race weekend. This week, there’s a bit of a different twist: The following column was written from the future, 10 years from now, and serves as a letter to present-day readers …
1. Big Takeaway
Hello, friends, and warm greetings from the future! It’s now April 2033 — time flies, doesn’t it? — and I’m sitting down to write a 10-year anniversary piece on The Athletic about the 2023 NASCAR season. But I figured I’d drop you a line first, since you’re probably a little concerned about how it all worked out.
If I’m looking at the 2023 calendar correctly, it looks like you all just finished up watching the spring Martinsville race from that year. Oof! Yeah, that one wasn’t too good. (I’m trying to remember the fan and driver reaction at the time; if Twitter was still around, my research would be a lot easier. Oh well.)
Anyway, that whole season was somewhat of a tipping point for short-track racing with the “Next Gen” car (which is actually two cars ago for us here in the future). You all were coming off a year we now consider as the “Best Regular Season Ever,” but that ended up masking some of the glaring problems with short tracks.
If I recall, NASCAR realized those tracks needed work before the 2023 season began and tried to use a different aero package. Unfortunately, it didn’t make much of a difference. Once teams figured out their setups with the Next Gen car and everyone started going the same speed, it became extremely difficult to pass. And when you combined that with a lack of tire wear and the Next Gen’s horrible dirty air problem … ouch.
Suddenly, the circuits which were once the heart of NASCAR and the best part of Cup Series racing saw their magic fade. Short-track racing took such a hit, it actually made people think covering Bristol with dirt was better than racing on the concrete. (Don’t worry — they stopped doing that a long time ago.)
The good news is the obvious decline in great short-track racing spurred NASCAR to make some changes. I can’t tell you exactly how, because that would mess up the space-time continuum and all that. But let’s just say it had to do with a combination of increased horsepower, a different tire and the elimination of shifting.
Side note: The horsepower part is actually hilarious to think about now. Were you all really watching the world’s premier oval series race around with only 670 hp? And some races with 550 hp before that? What!? That’s definitely a time we prefer to forget these days, sort of like when the Southern 500’s date was moved to Fontana (RIP).
But hey, most mistakes are reversible with time and money. It took a couple years, but NASCAR fixed the short tracks by 2025. And they actually added a bunch more to the schedule, too. The whole road course thing turned out to be kind of a fad, so NASCAR ended up going “back to the roots” with more small ovals while also getting the car to be much racier at those places.
Here in 2033, we’re actually enjoying somewhat of a short-track renaissance now. And NASCAR’s popularity is on the rise again, too. Those two might be linked, but it also helps that there’s an appetite for the “retro” sound of loud, gas-powered engines (we mostly all drive electric cars these days).
Anyway, there are a lot of other topics to cover in this letter, so it’s time to move on. But before we do, I know you’re wondering: How are you able to communicate from the future?
Again, I don’t want to give too many spoilers here, but let’s just say Chad Knaus got a bit bored during those first years of the spec car era and invented time travel as a side gig.
2. Main Character: Chase Elliott
Oh my gosh, I totally forgot about the Chase Elliott snowboarding injury from back in the day. Talk about a blast from the past! Trust me, no one mentions or thinks about that now. The only reason I remembered was ChatGPT put it on the list of “2023 NASCAR notable moments” when I was doing research for this letter.
Refresh my memory: Didn’t NASCAR do a big marketing push for Elliott’s return in hopes he would boost the TV ratings by himself? He got his own TV commercial and everything, right? But then it turned out most fans don’t watch NASCAR just for one driver, and the ratings didn’t see any major impact after he came back.
Anyway, Elliott is still the Most Popular Driver, but he’s a far different guy at age 37. He was so private and reserved for the first part of his career, and really wasn’t too media-friendly at all. Back then, we used to get the sense he just wanted to race and was all about showing up, doing his job and going home.
But in his early 30s, something clicked. Elliott realized the importance of his brand to the overall health of NASCAR and started putting himself out there more often. He seemed to grow more comfortable in having a prominent voice, a similar evolution to the one Dale Earnhardt Jr. once went through. Elliott may have begun his career in the shadow of his father, but blossomed into his own person and became one of NASCAR’s all-time personalities. I’m serious! No cap, as people say in your time.
Another spoiler alert: Elliott went on to win two races in the 2023 regular season after coming back and made it to the Championship 4. Legally, I can’t tell you if he wins the championship, but one hint: The 2023 champ is a Hendrick driver.
GO DEEPER
Chase Elliott, banged-up but back, shows his title hopes are very much alive
3. Question of the Week: Is Kyle Larson the GOAT?
You won’t believe what’s happened in the last 10 years with Kyle Larson. Well, actually you might.
This has been the Decade of Larson in many ways, with the Hendrick Motorsports driver collecting four more championships and 50-plus wins to move past Dale Earnhardt Sr. for No. 8 on the all-time victories list. And at age 40, he still has some solid years left.
NASCAR is even more competitive now than in 2023, if that’s even possible, so Larson’s achievements clearly stand out in a very difficult era. Combined with his Indy 500 win and continued dirt success, Larson has truly become the Mario Andretti/A.J. Foyt of his time.
So is he the best ever? Not yet, but he’s got a shot. If Larson can tie Earnhardt, Richard Petty and Jimmie Johnson with his seventh title in the next couple years, he’ll have a chance to make a legit argument for the NASCAR GOAT title.
4. Trash and Treasure
Trash: Burnouts. Here in the future, we don’t see celebratory burnouts anymore. Zane Smith and John Hunter Nemechek weren’t the only drivers to set their vehicles on fire during burnouts in 2023. Unfortunately, one driver did a burnout on a windy day at Sonoma, ignited his vehicle and ended up sparking a wildfire with the dry brown grass. Half of the track property burned on that infamous day. Local government officials then stepped in and made NASCAR promise to outlaw the practice.
Honestly, though, burnouts had sort of jumped the shark by then anyway. They were once a neat spectacle, but after drivers started setting their cars on fire, that was the end of the cool factor. In 2033, the understated Polish victory laps are back in style.
Treasure: Rain tires, which were used for the first time on an oval in April 2023. You all are onto something there! Believe me, we use rain tires all the time now in 2033. Places like Richmond, New Hampshire — even a Homestead race before they sold that track. Great innovation, aren’t they?
And yes, they are rain tires. Stop calling them “wet weather tires,” please. Do you know what wet weather is? It’s rain! I get it: NASCAR was initially trying not to build up expectations for using those tires in the rain (and they still don’t race in heavy downpours). But in 2033, we regularly see them employed in drizzle/mist situations as well as on damp tracks. It’s been awesome; weather-related postponements are down 60 percent compared to the early 2020s. Sweet!
5. Future five at No. 5 (from 2033)
• Defending NASCAR Cup champ Corey LaJoie might not be done yet. Yes, he’s starting to get toward the downside of his career at age 41. But it was cool to see him finally get that first Cup title in 2032 after grinding his way up the ladder to a big team. Actually, the whole Championship 4 from last year was pretty neat for fans of veteran drivers: you had LaJoie competing against longtime friend Joey Logano (now a four-time Cup champ at age 42), 40-year-old Ross Chastain and 32-year-old Todd Gilliland.
• NASCAR has lost some big personalities in recent years. Kyle Busch retired after last season at age 47 and Brad Keselowski made the transition to full-time team owner in 2029. Fortunately, there are some exciting new drivers in the pipeline: Brexton Busch will run a partial Cup schedule this season once he turns 18 and there’s a chance 20-year-old Red Bull F1 reserve driver Keelan Harvick may come over to NASCAR if an F1 seat doesn’t open up soon.
• Where will NASCAR race next? NASCAR CEO Ben Kennedy has already taken the Cup Series to Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom and Brazil in recent years. Some of the hot garage rumors here in 2033 have NASCAR using the latest technology to create a floating half-mile oval on top of a lake in Shanghai’s Century Park by the end of the decade.
• The National Motorsports Appeals Panel overturned yet another NASCAR penalty, causing more issues for the sanctioning body despite frequent changes to the panel’s format. The appeals panel, which now consists of 25 NASCAR employees who theoretically should serve as a rubber stamp, has continued to frustrate officials with its decisions. Cup Series director Jesse Little told reporters NASCAR is looking into further tweaks to ensure such rulings don’t happen again.
• Fans have been frustrated by caution calls this season after NASCAR implemented its new automated yellow flag system known as “Crash Catch.” Whenever a car spins or has significant contact with another vehicle, a GPS system automatically triggers Crash Catch and turns on the yellow caution lights. NASCAR created the $50 million system in response to fan complaints about inconsistent caution calls, but drivers have since figured out how to manipulate the cautions for their own benefit, leading to calls for human judgment to return to the scoring tower.
(Photo: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)